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п»їHow To Find Value In The Correct Score Market.
If you have recently started trading on Betfair, you may have noticed one of the most liquid football markets is for correct score betting.
In this guide, we will look at how to trade the correct score, the advantages and disadvantages of trading the correct score market, and a few different techniques you can try out for yourself.
What Is Correct Score Betting?
Football correct score betting at its simplest is as easy as it sounds. You are basically placing a wager on what you think the score of a match will be, whether it is 0-0 or 5-0 or any number you pluck out of your head.
The market closes at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time and does not include extra time or penalties.
We recommend using Betfair for correct score trading, as it tends to have the most liquid markets compared to other exchanges.
There are other exchanges you can use, and Smarkets also tends to have fairly good liquidity in the correct score market.
Here we have the correct score market for Greece v Finland, on both Betfair and Smarkets. More money has been traded on Smarkets, but it is still 24 hours before kick-off.
Correct score betting is tempting as the odds may seem quite high, considering that almost 80% of Premier League matches have 3 goals or less.
This gives only 10 different possible outcomes (0-0,1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, 0-2, 2-1, 1-2, 3-0, 0-3). However, picking which one of those outcomes will occur can be tricky.
We will be looking at the correct score market in terms of trading.
The difference between regular punting and trading is that when you are trading, you will always lock in a profit as soon as possible rather than greed out and hope you get lucky.
What Stats Should I Look At?
There are a few stats you can look up before a match to determine if the match is worth trading the correct score.
Generally, traders are either looking for a match that will be high-scoring or a match that will be low-scoring.
When looking for low-scoring matches, traders will look at the match odds, which should be close (indicating it will be a tight game), and the recent history of both clubs and the outcomes of previous matches.
High-scoring matches can happen when one side is heavily favoured. However, it is important to look at the underdog team in this situation. If they are known for вЂparking the bus’, then even though they are not likely to win, the score margin may still be fairly small.
High-scoring matches can occur when two teams that play open, expansive and attacking football meet. Be sure to check the teams when they are announced before the start of the match.
If both teams put out a defensive line-up, the chances of a low-scoring match increase. This will be reflected in the odds shifting on Betfair as the teams are announced.
Correct Score Trading Strategies.
Trading is all about decreasing your risk as much as possible. Correct score trading is never risk-free (unless you are playing with free bets) but there are ways you can decrease your risk substantially.
High-Scoring Example.
For both high-scoring and low-scoring correct score trading, you will want to spread your risk to cover a number of outcomes.
Instead of just selecting one scoreline, you might select four or five potential outcomes.
Let’s say we think the upcoming Greece v Finland match will be a fairly high-scoring match, but we are not sure which side will come out on top.
We can spread our risk by betting on a few different outcomes. In this example, we have bet ВЈ2 on 2-0, 0-2, 1-2, 2-1 and 2-2, making our total liability ВЈ10.00, and our potential profit varies from ВЈ17.20 up to ВЈ52.00.
This is still technically punting, even though we have decreased our risk by spreading it amongst several outcomes.
In order to decrease our risk further, we can continue to bet in-play.
We have bet on high scores for this match. This means that if there are a couple of goals early on, we can exit out of our position and still make a profit.
The more goals that go in, the shorter the odds get for our higher correct scores. This means we can sell for a higher price than we bought at, making us a profit.
Low-Scoring Example.
It is also possible to do this with matches where we think the score will be low. If the match market is close and both teams are defensively minded, we can select a range of scores that reflect our prediction.
Here, we have selected a few outcomes that would be likely in an evenly-matched, low-scoring game. Our total liability is ВЈ6.00, and our potential profit ranges from ВЈ10.80 to ВЈ20.00.
However, as before, this is still technically just punting even though we are reducing our risk by spreading it out over a few different outcomes.
If things go in our favour, we can trade our position to come out with a profit even if the outcome of the match differs from our predictions.
If the match progresses to the second half without either side scoring, the odds for our selected outcomes will most likely shorten. This means we can trade out of our position for a profit, regardless of what the final outcome is.
Likewise, if there is a goal early on which results in one of the teams adopting a more attacking approach, it would be sensible to exit out of our wager to try and minimise our losses.
What Are The Advantages Of Trading?
If you are looking to make long-term profits, trading is always the most sensible option.
We can вЂhedge’ our bets. If the match is going in our favour and looks likely to end in a result we have bet on, we can secure our position for a guaranteed profit by laying our bet to cover all outcomes.
This decreases the amount of profit we will make, but it also guarantees that profit. For a trader, this is always the most favourable option.
Remember that football is an unpredictable game with goals often being scored in the final third of the match. It is always more sensible to take the guaranteed profit and move on to the next match.
About the Author.
This post was written by Andy Beggs . Andy is a keen sports fan and has been writing for Beating Betting from his home in Australia since August 2019.
How to exploit Correct Score bets for potentially huge returns.
by Clive Keeling | Oct 10, 2014.
†It is very rare that I contact a sport information provider to praise them but in your case I will make an exception. Your analysis of matches has been a godsend – it is second to none!
†The vast majority of my wagers are placed pre-match, with an occasional bet in-play to add to the initial bet. In two months I have made only five incorrect calls and four of these were avoidable after rechecking the statistics.
†In summary, your analysis have help me to achieve a monthly profit for September in excess of £2,400 (minimum stake £50, maximum stake £100). These figures were achieved during an international break, which is a notoriously difficult period to achieve consistent profits. This therefore makes your analysis all the more incredible.
†Keep up the good work! ’
It’s very gratifying that people are profiting, as I hoped they would, from my hours and hours of football research which I provide on a daily basis to DRT members.
Here’s an example of the real вЂshorties’ (as I call them), from today’s international football coupon…
1.30 p.m. – Serbia U19 v San Marino U19 – 1.02 to Serbia u19 2.00 p.m. – Liechtenstein U19 v France U19 – 1.01 to France U21 7.45 p.m. – Belgium v Andorra – 1.02 – 1.02 Belgium.
Do not dismiss these short-priced teams who are unbackable in the Match Odds market.
Think goals. Think correct scores. Think wins to nil.
Look at yesterday’s matches: Germany u19 were 1.03-shots against Kazakhstan u19 and won 6-0 (a correct score I correctly predicted in the DRT research).
Russia U19 were 1.04-shots against Faroe Islands u19 and won 7-0. My DRT research prediction? 6-0 and 8-0: yes, that’s right – ye olde betting gods are having a good chortle at that prediction!
England were 1.01-shots against San Marino. The final score? 5-0. My research yesterday? †Look towards 6-0, 7-0 scorelines. England tend to level out at 5-0 and 6-0 at home to minnows .’
You see the pattern? Turn these shorties into a good-priced bet by looking at a Goals bet or a Correct Score to Nil bet.
You could include these matches in goals accumulators or correct score permutations. Here’s an article I wrote some time ago on Correct Score permutations – it is perfectly suited to the international break and can produce a massive return…
How to exploit these correct scores for potential huge returns.
Try out the following permutations once you have determined a likely correct score based upon these selection processes (and the assumption that these short-priced international teams will win at around a 4-0 starting point).
Permutation 1: ??Ukraine is playing Andorra at home. Ukraine is, quite rightly, very short-odds favourites, being quoted at odds of 1/40. This signifies goals. This will be match one. On the same day, Russia is playing Liechtenstein. The Russians are quoted as 1/100 shots. Again, this signifies goals. This will be match two.
Match one: 2-0 3-0 4-0 4-1 5-0 Match two: 2-0 3-0 3-1 4-0 5-0.
We write down a variation of scores which surround the 4-0 to hopefully account for any difficulties in scoring. I always include one score where the minnows score a goal – this, I’m afraid, is where luck comes in. 3-1 or 4-1 would be my options.
On the betting slip, we write вЂPerm five results for each match for a correct score double = 25 bets’.
If the result of both matches is contained on your betting slip, you have a winning double, and as Correct Scores tend to pay out at decent odds, we have a chance of a nice-paying double to compensate for the biggish cost of the bet.
For instance, if looking at the Premiership, I would select a team like Burnley, and looking at the Challenge Table, I determine that they are generally competitive at home, with scorelines of 1-0, 3-1, 1-0, 1-3, 2-1 & 2-0.
Alternatively, I would also look at teams such as Stoke, who, when playing the top-four teams at Stoke’s home ground in the Premiership (Man Utd, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea), do eventually lose, but keep the matches tight. Losses such as 2-1 and 2-0 when Chelsea and Man Utd visited offer us an insight into the expected scorelines when Arsenal and Liverpool visit.
Another method of looking for a shortlist of matches is to look in those leagues which, whilst having dominant teams, tend to generate tight scorelines. As well as using the Challenge Table, we can also use the Scores (at Home) and Scores (Away) Tables to determine the most popular scorelines for a specific team.
I hope you have subliminally noticed the scorelines mentioned above: 1-0, 2-1 and 2-0, and these will form the basis of our second permutation.
Match one: 1-0 2-0 2-1 Match two: 1-0 2-0 2-1 ?Match three: 1-0 2-0 2-1.
Write the above on your betting slip or in your long-list fixed-odds coupon with the instructions to the bookmaker to вЂPerm 3 scorelines for each match for a winning treble = 27 bets’ .
I hope you find these correct score permutations useful.
There’s a sumptuous race card at Newmarket tomorrow, so I thought I’d do my traditional look at past winners to see if they can predict future trends.
205 Newmarket 11 October 2014 – This is a Group 3 match. Only one winning favourite (joint-favourite) in the last five runnings. Andrea Atzeni won last year and jockeys haven’t won two consecutive races. Perhaps ignore his Bartholemew’s Fair. Winners of 15/2, 8/1 and 9/1 in the last five years. I would venture towards an 8/1 horse each way in this race tomorrow.
240 Newmarket – This is a listed race for fillies and mares with 19 runners and only three winning favourites in ten years. These winners were 11/8 and 6/4. Perhaps if we see a 6/4 horse tomorrow, back it?
The biggest-priced outsider in ten years was a 20/1-shot. I would look to a 12/1–16/1 horse to back each way tomorrow. I don’t have the betting market so you’ll have to check it tomorrow.
Guess who won this race last year? Andrea Atzeni. It would be such an anomaly for him to do what he did last year again.
350 Newmarket – This is the вЂCesarewitch’ and is a 36-runner field. Good luck! The last two winners have been 66/1-shots and there have been only two winning favourites in ten years.
Odds of 25/1, 66/1, 66/1 are those of the last three winners. Think big. Think speculative tomorrow. And do back each way. A new jockey tends to win this each year: De Sousa, Fallon, Dettori, Beuzelin , Atzeni, Ahern, Murtagh, Spencer, Munro and French are the last few winning jockeys. Ignore their horses perhaps, and head for a clear outsider or two?
Good luck with the Cesarewitch. You’ll need it. I’d look at a 25/1-shot, a 40/1-shot and a 66/1-shot not ridden by the jockeys above in the hope that a new jockey wins again.
One thing I have noticed in Andrea Atzeni: he won the Cesarewitch in 2009 and also won the first two races at last year’s meeting. Speculate on all of his rides each way?
I’m off now to ensure a nice cold pint of beer tomorrow. It’s rare that I get a weekend off. One of the perks of the international break!
Requirements for a Military Sniper.
Navy Reserve Vs. Air Force Reserve.
One of the most selective positions in the U.S. military is that of the sniper. Snipers are sharpshooters given the task of picking off enemies from a long distance--the motto is "One Shot,-One Kill." Snipers in both the Army and the Marine Corps, the two main branches employing them, must be male. They shoot a modified Model 700 Remington bolt-action repeating rifle. Most Army snipers shoot an M24, while snipers in the Marines use an M40.
Features.
Snipers are formally trained in both the Army and the Marines. While some members of these branches, as well the other branches of service, may be called upon to be sharpshooters, only those who have completed sniper school can be considered true snipers. In order to attend sniper school, prospective snipers must meet a number of criteria and then be nominated to attend the course by their commanding officer.
Physical Requirements.
Before they begin school, snipers must meet a number of physical requirements. Snipers must have 20/20 vision or vision that is correctable to 20/20 and have normal color vision (not color blind). In the Army, snipers must score 70 percent or better on each area of the Army Physical Fitness Test. In the Marines, snipers must get a first-class score on the Marine Corps Physical Fitness Test, receiving 80 percent or better on all tests.
Service Record.
Both Army and Marines snipers must score 110 or better on the General Technical portion of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery. All snipers must be graded as expert marksmen with the M-16. In the Army, a sniper must have had no major disciplinary action taken against them during their time in the service; in the Marines, a sniper must have had a clean record for the previous six months. In the Army, snipers must be between the grade of E3 and E7, although this requirement can be waived. In the Marines, snipers must be between E2 and E7. Aspiring snipers must also pass a psychological evaluation.
Classes.
Army snipers attend Sniper School at Fort Benning, Ga., while Marines snipers attend Scout Sniper school at the Marine Corps Base Hawaii. The Army sniper school lasts five weeks, while the Marine Corps course lasts 10 weeks. Both schools cover shooting techniques, camouflage and stalking an enemy. Dropout and failure rates are high.
Placement.
After completing the required schooling, snipers will be placed with a combat unit, working either as a sniper or a counter-sniper. Sniping is not a rank, but an assignment. Therefore, if a sniper fails to perform as expected, he can be transferred to a position in which he does not perform this function.
Correct Score Trading – A Guide.
One of the most football popular markets to trade on is the correct score market. Below we take a look at how the market works, the advantages and disadvantages of trading it and some strategies for you to potentially use in your trading.
What is the Correct Score Market?
The correct score market is quite straightforward – it is a market in a which you predict what the score will be in a football match.
The score is based on the result of the match in normal time (i.e. 90 minutes plus stoppage time) and does not include any extra time or penalties that may be played.
On Betfair, the correct score market typically looks like this:
You have all scores listed from 0-0 right up to 3-3, then you have “Any other home win,” “Any other away win” and “Any other draw.”
These “any other” scores are any of those not listed, so basically any scoreline that includes four or more goals for one side.
You then either back or lay the scores you want on the Betfair interface.
Why Trade the Correct Score Market?
It is worth considering why you should trade on the correct score market.
Firstly, it is one of the most liquid markets on Betfair, with plenty of chances to trade out your position at any time and good value on your trades.
Trading the market can also present an advantage over just betting on it, as you can follow a game live and see how it is going, moving around your position depending on how many goals are being scored. You can cover multiple scorelines and adjust your position as things develop, although we will go into different strategies in more detail later on.
The correct score market also allows you to hedge your bets to a certain extent. If you think a team is going to win comfortably to nil, but aren’t sure what the exact score is going to be, you could back 2-0, 3-0 and Any Other Home for example, giving you a wide exposure.
In the correct score market you can also cover the eventuality of both teams winning, if for example you think there will be lots of goals but aren’t sure who will actually win the game.
Things to Watch Out for with Correct Score Trading.
Whilst there are a number of advantages to trading the Correct Score market, there are some things to watch out for.
Firstly, you should be aware that there is a possibility of another goal being scored in quick succession after one has just been scored, before you have had a chance to close out your trade. This could leave you exposed to a loss in certain circumstances. It is rare this will happen but is worth bearing in mind.
The other thing to beware of is the way that the Betfair correct score market is made up, with the “any other” options covering eventualities where at least one side scoring 4 goals. So you can’t back specific scorelines above four goals, like 4-0, 4-1 etc. Although there is a “correct score 2” market you could potentially use, we wouldn’t recommend this as liquidity is generally poor.
Best Exchange for Correct Score Trading.
We recommend the Betfair exchange for correct score trading as it is the most liquid and covers the greatest number of matches.
Correct Score Trading Strategies.
Now we will take a look at two strategies for trading the correct score market, one in matches expected to be high scoring and one for matches expected to be low scoring.
Strategy One – High Scoring Matches.
One way to trade the correct score markets is to take a spread of scores in a match where you think a certain eventuality is likely.
So for example you may think it will be a high scoring, tight match. In this instance, you could take a range of scores, say 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 and 1-3.
This is shown in the example below of this in the Community Shield game between Arsenal and Chelsea.
Here we have backed a range of different scorelines, where we think there will be at least two goals.
You can set this up to make approximately the same profit if any of your scorelines are hit by using Bet Angel software and choosing the dutching option.
As you can see, with these scorelines having been backed, there is the possibility of winning around ВЈ10 if one of the scorelines is hit with a liability of ВЈ10.
However, we are not going to do just place the bets and leave them, we are going to trade them.
What we are going to do is wait to see how the match develops and then hopefully trade out when some goals are scored.
If we get into the second half and it is 1-1 or 2-1 to either side, then we will be able to trade out for a nice profit without needing to worry about what the final score will be and whether it ends up with a score we haven’t backed such as 3-2.
Now in this example, Chelsea scored early in the second half, which put us in a good position. All we needed was one more goal and we would be looking at a decent profit.
We had to wait late on for a goal to be scored, but thankfully for us it was, with Arsenal equalising in the 82nd minute.
That allowed us to trade out for a profit of at least ВЈ8.53 , whatever happened.
If you were concerned about leaving the trade this late in the game, then of course you could have traded out earlier and taken a loss of 20-30% of your liability.
However, the way the game was developing we saw a good chance of there being another goal so stuck in there.
The choice of whether to stay in or get out of a trade will depend on both your trading style and how a game is progressing. That is something that comes with experience.
Now we will look at our second example, this time involving a low scoring match.
Strategy Two – Low Scoring Matches.
Alternatively, you may think it will be a low-scoring game.
Here we take a look at the match between Rosenborg and Celtic in the Champions League. It is expected to be a tight affair, with the match odds being close, with Celtic priced at 2.28 and Rosenborg at 3.45.
The under 2.5 goals odds is just 1.86.
So we think it will be low scoring, but aren’t sure who will win. So we take a range of scores between 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0 to each side.
We use Bet Angel’s dutching tool to back all the scores so that we get the same amount of profit if any of them win.
But you can also work this out manually if you do not have access to Bet Angel or similar trading software.
Now we let the game go in-running and see what happens.
The game is 0-0 at half time, meaning our prediction of it being low scoring is looking good. There will be a great opportunity to trade out for profit if there is a goal in the second half.
Good news comes in the 69th minute as Celtic hit the back of the net.
We can now trade out for profit – a good profit – whatever happens in the game.
We just click the “cash out” button and Betfair does the rest for us.
So we have made a minimum of £9.17 profit whatever happens from a maximum outlay of £10 – although if there had been an early goal, we could have closed out our trades to ensure that we didn’t lose the full £10.
So here we have seen two examples of trading the correct score markets with a spread of scores in mind, allowing us to trade out during the game for profit without needing to worry about what the final score will be.
Obviously not all games will go in our favour like this and in certain instances we will need to trade out for a loss. This is part of trading and it is important we do this and don’t lose our full stake, or worse risk more to try and chase losses.
Looking for more Correct Score Trading Strategies?
So there are a couple of correct score trading strategies to get you going.
However, you may be looking for something a bit more in-depth and to progress to expert correct score trading. If so, we have a couple of packages you may wish to check out:-
1. Goal Profits.
Goal Profits is an award-winning package of football trading strategies that combines a great deal of knowledge and experience on trading with a large community of followers.
As a member you get access to 16 different trading strategies , in depth training on how to become a full-time trader, a chat forum where you can discuss trading ideas with other members and follow live experts as well as a “Team Stats” database that brings together a wealth of information and statistics on football which can be used as a basis for your trades. There is also ongoing support available to aid you in your trading development.
The trading strategies include correct score methods but also have other approaches such as variants on lay the draw and HT strategies, so you are getting quite a wide range of styles.
Ultimately if you are looking to take your football trading to the next level then there are few better places than Goal Profits.
2. Assured Soccer Profits.
As an alternative to Goal Profits, there is Assured Soccer Profits , a trading system specifically for the correct score markets.
The system behind Assured Soccer Profits is quite a unique one and they should be credited with developing something original in the football trading space. It does take some time to learn and practice to get right, but could be a strategy to bring in regular profits trading the correct score markets.
Conclusion – Correct Score Trading.
The correct score market is one of the most liquid on Betfair and attracts a lot of interest from the trading community.
This is perhaps because there are so many possible ways of trading the market as opposed to many of the other football markets which have just two or three possible outcomes.
We have identified a couple of potential strategies for you above, which we hope will come in useful as an introduction to correct score trading.
If you are looking for more in-depth approaches, then we have also earmarked a couple of options you may wish to try.
Either way, good luck in your trading and please always gamble responsibly.
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